Archive for the ‘general’ Category

Sports Betting Bankroll Management

It is profitable to make money from online sports betting, but a lot of this depends on how well you utilise your bankroll and limit your financial exposure. It’s just like financial trading really, even if you “feel” a certain stock is going to rise by the end of the day, you have to limit how much you invest. You cannot be risking what you cannot afford to lose. Hence why in poker bankroll management professional players will only risk 5% or less of their total bankroll in each game.

In sports betting, you have to realize that just because you think a team will win or lose, it doesn’t mean you can afford to risk half of your entire bankroll. Sports betting and financial speculating do not work like that. Earning money through sports betting is a marathon – it is a bit like the football teams winning the English Premier League. You don’t make your profit by betting large amounts on high odds, you do it by grinding out results over the season and getting more bets right than you did wrong.

A general rule in sports betting is to only wager 1%-3% of your entire bankroll at a time. This means that if you have a maximum bankroll (the amount that you’re prepared to commit and lose) of $1,000, then you only be staking a maximum of $30 at a time. This is very important.

Professional NFL punters, who make money from betting on the NFL, only have a win-rate or margin of 50-56% on average. This means that they’ll predict just over half of the matches that they bet on correctly. Over the course of a season, if you bet too much per game, and lose a few games in a row (which is entirely possible), then you will end up risking a huge portion of your bankroll and you might not be able to recover from it.

Depending on your insight and knowledge about a particular game, alone with your recent winnings, you can vary how much you wager. If you are very confident of the end result and you have a very strong feeling about something then you can afford to risk the higher end of your bankroll (up to 3%). On the other hand, if you’re not entirely confident or betting on a team which you don’t know much about or that has played very inconsistently in the past (or there’s a lack of heads up information) then you should only part with 1% of your bankroll.

Generally, sports betting bankroll management isn’t hard or difficult to understand. What is hard however is to actually execute this theory and discipline yourself to limiting how much you wager with. Any sports betting fan can get over confident and start wagering silly amounts (e.g. 10% of their bankroll), only to lose a lot of money and have taken 2 steps forward 10 steps backwards. Stick to a plan, stay disciplined, don’t get emotionally involved and make smart wagers – that’s the key to successful online sports betting.

Betting Structures in Poker Games

The method of betting in a poker game varies, partly depending on the type of poker you are playing and partly on how you wish to play it. There is no set rule of how the betting must be structured in all poker games, but there are four common structures that often appear and that you should familiarise yourself with if you intend to play. Free poker might be interesting but does not provide you with any wins.

The first structure is the spread limit, which is most common in simple games of poker played between friends. In a spread limit game, there is a range in which bets can be placed, for example between £5 and £20. Players can bet any amount within that framework, the minimum bet being £5 and the maximum anyone can bet or raise at any one time being £20. In this kind of game, if someone raises you must then raise either the same amount or higher.

The fixed limit betting structure is the standard for poker played in casinos. In this kind of poker, the amount that you can bet or raised is fixed for each separate round of betting. The amount allowed will increase as you progress through rounds of the game. In a £5 to £10 fixed limit game, for example, for the first few rounds, usually two, each player will only be able to bet or raise £5. For the last rounds, you can only bet or raise the maximum of £10. This structure keeps the game simple and fair, which is why it is popular in casinos.

Pot limit games depend on the amount of money currently in the “pot”. The money in the pot has been contributed by players, and the largest amount you can bet or raise is the amount currently present in that pot. Although this may seem simple, pot limit games can get extremely confusing and more worryingly very expensive if players keep betting the maximum amount and therefore doubling the pot.

No limit is probably the most exciting form of poker, and you will be familiar with it if you’ve ever watched Texas Hold’em on TV or at the World Series of Poker. No limit poker means exactly what it says – there is absolutely no limit or cap on the amount of money you can bet at any one time. As long as you can afford it, of course!

Arbitrage Betting

The aim of sports betting online is to make money however nowadays with the advent of hundreds of bookies offering odds in the same market it’s now possible to do something called arbitrary betting.

Arbitrary betting involves taking advantage of different markets and placing bets for the outcome of all events to guarantee you a profit on the outcome of a race. To place an arbitrary bet, all you need to do is place a straight forward bet, and then find a bookie that will give you laying odds shorter than that bet.

For example, let’s say that I’m betting on a horse race. If I place £10 on horse A to win at 4.0, and then find a bookie that allows me to lay horse A (i.e. bet against him to win) at 3.5 for £11, then I’ll make a profit regardless of the outcome.

If horse A wins, then I’ll make £1.50 profit (£40 – 38.5), where as if horse A loses, I’ll still make £1 profit (£11 – £10).

The beauty of arbitrage betting like this, which is also known as “trading” is that it’s impossible to lose money. The trick to arbitrary betting is to find a bookie that has overpriced the odds of something happening, and then laying that bet with shorter odds.

Arbitrage Betting Tips

In order to place an arb bet and make serious profit, you need to be placing much higher wagers than conventional bets. This is because the margins for profit are obviously a lot lower. Most arb bets tend to be worth over $200 to make any real money from it.

Another essential part of arb betting is that you need to be able to place a lay bet. Not all sports books and bookies allow you to do this. Bet365 and Bodog for example don’t provide lay betting as an option. You can however sign up to a sports betting exchange such as Betfair, which not only allows you to lay and cover individual events but also lets you set your own laying odds in the Fan Vs. Fan betting markets.

This inevitably leads to you receiving shorter odds and higher profit than most betting exchanges. In fact, betfair also released a new iPhone betting application which enables you do bet across all of their sports betting and trading markets from your mobile.

A tip for placing laying odds is that you don’t want to place any bets where the odds are too high as this will increase your liability and risk exposure. I generally like to keep my laying odds in between 1 and 3.0. If you decide to place a laying bet of £10 with laying odds of 13.0 for example, then for every £10 you can win you’ll have to risk £130. This blatantly isn’t worth the risk in terms of the payoffs.

Happy New Year 2010

Happy New Year to All Sports Betting Fans.

May the Sports God of Luck Be with You.

Thank you to all of you who have been reading my blog regularly. There was a lot of action last year, and there will be even more sports betting action this year 2010. I will be more active in posting interesting stories than last year, so please keep on coming back, and you will find great content about football, basketball, baseball, soccer, Tour de France, Olympic Games, and all the sports where betting takes place.

There is a lot of debate taking place in Congress about legalizing online gambling and it seems the wind is now blowing in favor of liberalizing the rules related to making online bets about the outcome of sporting events. Online gambling includes three main categories, online poker, online casino and online sports betting.

One important element in allowing this type of betting is related to the question of skill versus luck. Pure luck based games involving money are frowned upon, unless they are State owned. This is the irony of the so-called moral laws, if the State itself governs a game and gets the income from a luck game such as lotto, it is ok. But if not, then these games are the work of the devil and whoever runs them should go to jail.

Skill games are in luck, no pun intended, as such games are considered less morally disturbing. So the game of poker for instance is now getting more and more considered like a skill game by American judges all over the country. In other words it is getting closer to be approved, and there is a good chance that Congress will repel the infamous UIGEA, a law intended to ban all forms of online gambling. It was already postponed for 6 months.

The point here is that sports betting is also a skill based type of game. The most successful bettors are the ones who study the sports, the history, the odds and the players in great depth, in order to uncover when odds mispricings occur. Only counting on luck in sports betting will not cut it.

So logically we should also see some sort of legalization of sports betting to some extent in the not so distant future. Let us see.

The sports betting revolution

The Internet has revolutionized our way of life in so many aspects. Amazingly this also includes sports betting.

Indeed the Web has enabled sports information including odds to be displayed and transacted in real-time among a large number of bettors. This has provided a much larger pool of liquidity in bets compared to the more traditional compartmented bookmaker market. This is turn has enabled the largest online sports betting company to enlarge and refine their offerings, providing a wide range of sports and events on which to bet at reasonable cost.

Nowadays sports betting is possible and popular on football, baseball, basketball, golf, hockey, tennis, soccer, boxing, mixed martial arts, motor sports, horse racing, rugby, cricket, even darts and snooker.

The biggest markets for sports betting are usually the biggest markets for the sports themselves, because the people who make bets are first of all fans of the sports who are so into the games that they put their money where their mouth is. So in the United States, billions are wagered on football, baseball and basketball events. While in Europe the popular sports are soccer and rugby and this is where the most bets usually take place.

In addition the Internet provides the ability to open accounts, fund them, obtain real time quotes, place bets, withdraw your winnings, even discuss your betting interest with fellow betting aficionados in sports betting forum, etc. All this without picking up the phone and within the comfort of your home thanks to your web connection.

The Internet is reshaping the way sports betting is conducted and national borders are getting erased. But you must be very aware of the laws of the country where you reside before engaging in sports betting.

Each country is different and we cannot give legal advice regarding that matter. The only thing we want to point out is that with offshore sports betting, Governments cannot regulate betting taking place outside their jurisdictions. This is another advantage of the Web, but it must not be abused.

The explosion of online sports betting is great news for all people who like us love to place bets on their favorite events. Remember to do your homework when you choose a sports book to place your bets. We will post in the near future about our recommendations for the safest venues to place your bets. Meanwhile, may luck be with you.

Hello world, here I am

Sports-betting-systems-tips is born today May 1st, 2009.

The name of this blog makes it easy to know what it is all about: sports betting, i.e. making bets on sports. Systems, so what I will be talking about is any systematic way to make such bets.

This blog is not about gambling. I have not interest in discussing purely random events. If I have no control over the outcome of my actions, there is no fun. By analyzing systems and systems applied to sports betting, we are looking for patterns in the data, for pockets of structure. For some organisation in how things work.

In the United States, the sports used for betting are basketball, baseball and football primarily. Golf, soccer, tennis, etc are also interesting playgrounds for sports betting activities. Horse racing is also a very exciting entertainment and there exist systems for that too.

As I have a Ph.D. in Statistics from a Ivy League School, I feel well qualified to study some of the systems available in the market and determine if they have merit or not.

One system which I will review more in details in another post is sports betting champ. Developed by another Ivy League (Cornell U.) Statistics Ph.D. named John Morrison, this system has produced extraordinary results so far.