Archive for November 30th, 2009

New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots on November 30th

At the time of writing, the Saints are the favorites by three points at +120 juice for week 12 match against the Patriots.

The consensus reports show a split of about 55/45 in favor of New England – not quite enough to move the spread off the magic number of three. This is the biggest total the Patriots have seen in the past 25 years. The Saints got up to 56.5 a couple of times, most recently in 2004 against Kansas City, but never higher.

Historically the New England Patriots lead the all-time series at 8-3 and have won the past three games between the two teams. But the Saints enter week 12 of the NFL regular season with an impeccable 10-0 record versus 7-3 for the Patriots.

Today the New England Patriots come to the Crescent City to play against the New Orleans Saints who will have the best defense and home field advantage. But the Saints defense has had numerous injuries and the Patriots offense should take advantage of that.

With respect to the statistics for this match, the Football Outsiders’ advanced efficiency numbers rank the New England Patriots first in offense while the New Orleans Saints are third. Another measure shows the Saints on top of the league with 420.5 yards per game marginally better than the Patriots at 416.1 yards. New Orleans put quite a few more points on the board at 36.9 per game, easily the most in the NFL and about eight more than 29 per game for the Patriots in the fourth-place.

The Patriots will rely on quarterback Tom Brady who has surpassed the 300 yard passing mark in the past five weeks. For the Saints, their captain Drew Brees have also passed the 300 mark five times this season.

Let’s watch this great encounter on ESPN tonite.